Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
